Pitches, Balls and Reserves – Where the Ashes Will Be Won and Lost

Just 48 hours to go.

England's first Test in Australia begins on the morning of Friday.

With the help of CricViz, we examine where the highly awaited Ashes series in years could be decided.

It’s challenging to make runs, right?

Batters on both teams of the Ashes divide might be wondering why they are bothering to show up.

Much of the pre-series discussion has centred around the apparent difficulty of batting successfully, particularly for the first Test on a Perth pitch described as a "green monster".

Regarding playing in Australian conditions, especially against pace bowling, no nation has been harder in which to accumulate runs over the last five years.

Two key factors for this: pitches and balls.

Taken as a collective, the pitches produced in Australia have been shown to be the quickest, most bouncy and among the most inconsistent in the world.

Pace and variable bounce are the perfect recipe for difficult batting conditions.

A long-standing narrative from England's cricketing circles paints the Kookaburra ball used in this country as a useless tool for a pace bowler.

A new version of the Kookaburra was introduced six years ago, leading to increased seam movement.

Seam is a much bigger weapon than swing bowling in Australian conditions.

After the new ball's introduction, fast bowlers are averaging 25 runs per wicket in Australia.

Test match cricket is about problem solving.

When bowlers dominate, performances of batters can be the deciding factor, and the reverse is true.

If this Ashes be bowler-dominated, a batter could have the chance to be the difference between the two teams.

What's going on with the Australian pace attack?

On this occasion, England have arrived in Australia with their fast-bowling unit largely intact, while the home side are the ones hit by injuries.

Skipper Pat Cummins will miss at least the opening match with a back injury, and Josh Hazlewood is on the sidelines for an unknown period because of a hamstring problem.

Cummins, Josh Hazlewood and Starc were first paired as a three-pronged attack for the 2017-18 Ashes.

From that point, they have taken together 81% of the dismissals taken by Australian fast bowlers in home Tests.

The Australian team have seldom needed alternatives because of the success and durability of the 'leading trio'.

When Australia have needed a back-up, Scott Boland has been sensational, taking 62 dismissals in 14 matches at an average below 17.

Aside from Scott Boland, other members of the backup squad have performed well.

Neser, Richardson and James Pattinson all average below 30 in domestic Tests.

The most recent occasion Australia entered a home Test without both key bowlers, and were defeated, was in the year 2012.

The past two times they have played at home without the pair, they have triumphed by a combined 694 runs, including a win against England in the Adelaide Test previously.

In infrequent cases Australia have had to look beyond their star fast bowlers, results have not been affected – England should take heed.

Challenging Openings

Recall the time England struggled to identify an opening batsman to partner Alastair Cook?

Sir Chef changed partners more quickly than Watford go through managers.

Not anymore.

Ever since Duckett and Zak Crawley were united at the top of the England order at the end of 2022, no batting partnership in the world has scored more runs together.

The pair's effectiveness as a partnership has been a reason in Crawley being supported through some inconsistent times.

The Kent man, who memorably hit the initial delivery of the previous Ashes for a boundary, has also been identified as having the technique for Australian conditions.

His batting average increases when the bowling gets faster.

In comparison, Australia's top order is in a constant state of flux, still seeking to fill the gap left by David Warner.

After Warner's departure at the beginning of 2024, Khawaja has batted with five different partners in 15 Tests.

Yet to debut Weatherald appears likely to become the sixth opener in 16 Tests on Friday, giving Australia an all-left-handed opening combo.

It is not just the opening pair that has posed issues for Australia.

Marnus Labuschagne, Australia's long-term number three, was shifted to open for the WTC final, then dropped entirely.

Home performances has earned him a recall, probably back at three.

In seven Tests in 2025, the Australian top order average a collective of 25.37.

Only the top threes of Zimbabwe and the West Indies have done worse.

Battle of Spin

For two so evenly-matched teams, there is a single department where Australia are clearly stronger – spin bowling.

Australia's Nathan Lyon, with 562 Test wickets of him, is one of the finest finger-spinners to play the game.

England's Shoaib Bashir is a moderately successful gamble, looking short of form after a broken finger, while Jacks is mainly a batsman.

It would seem logical for the home team to want Lyon at the forefront, but bowling spin has been extremely challenging in Australia for the last decade.

During that period, spinners have averaged almost 44 in this country, though Lyon's record largely stands up compared to the struggles of overseas spinners.

Another challenge for Lyon is physically getting on to bowl.

Remember the effectiveness of fast bowling?

It is reducing Lyon's time with ball in hand.

In the 2017-18 Ashes here, Lyon was averaging 50 overs per Test.

Last year, in five matches against India, it was half that number.

Tests in Australia are lasting about 25% less time since the updated ball was introduced, meaning Lyon has less space to make an impact.

Right place, right time?

England have a unfortunate tendency of being defeated in an away Ashes before Santa Claus has set off.

Traditionally, the series traditionally started in the Gabba, where they have not won since 1986.

Recently, that has been followed by a floodlit Test in Adelaide.

England have one win in seven pink-ball Tests worldwide, while Australia have triumphed in 13 out of 14.

Then on to Perth, a city England have played at 14 times since 1970 and won only once, against a weakened Australia in 1978.

On this tour, the initial three venues on the itinerary are the identical, only in a rearranged order and under altered conditions.

Perth hosts an Ashes opener for the first occasion, not at the fabled Waca – site of past English struggles – but the shiny new Perth Stadium.

It remains a tough assignment, though one the visitors tackle with no historical baggage.

The Gabba is the venue for the second Test, the day-nighter.

The last time Australia played a day-night Test at the Brisbane, they were stunned by the West Indies.

Likewise, the Aussies are now unaccustomed to playing daytime Tests at the typical floodlit ground Adelaide Oval.

In the two red-ball matches played in the City of Churches since 2014, Australia were defeated once, to India, in 2018.

The revised fixture list gives England a new opportunity at beginning an overseas series positively, albeit with pitfalls.

The home side have secured victory in four out of five matches played at Perth Stadium, though the one defeat came in the most recent match – against India last year.

Every Test at the new ground has been claimed by the team setting a target.

The English often overthink floodlit Tests, when statistics suggest the pink cricket ball does not behave very differently from its red counterpart.

The challenge in {day-night matches|